The Kyrgyz Republic, as well as other countries of Central Asia, is highly exposed to natural-environmental hazards, which continues undermining efforts to achieve sustainable development. National disaster risk assessment procedures in Central Asian countries are mainly based on the evaluation of hazards without a detailed analysis of vulnerability and resilience. Additionally, the available practices of hazard assessments are mostly based on a zone-by-zone approach, which would make it difficult to develop a comparative assessment of facilities located in the same hazard zone. This situation hampers the efforts of the local governments to effectively plan and implement disaster risk reduction (DRR) actions when they cannot differentiate the individual facilities according to the risk level in order to focus the existing capacity (which is usually very limited) on increasing the resilience and reducing the vulnerability of the facilities with the highest risk. For improvement of DRR practices, the quantitative comprehensive approach of risk analysis applied in this study is used for risk assessment of educational institutions in one of the most seismically active and most disaster-prone mountain regions of Central Asia - the Alay valley, a wide intermontane valley situated in between the two biggest mountain systems in Asia: Tian Shan and Pamir. The developed multidisciplinary study suggests that the quantitative multi-risk assessment approach - can play a crucial role in understanding risks and can significantly improve the quality of disaster risk reduction planning.
UN, UNISDR, Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2009, 30.
EC, ISDR, UN. DRR in the Central Asia, 2009, 35.
Fleming, Kevin; Ullah, Shahid; Parolai, Stefano; Walker, Richard; Pittore, Massimiliano; Free, Matthew; Fourniadis, Yannis; Villiani, Manuela; Sousa, Luis; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko Revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic. 19th EGU General Assembly, EGU2017, proceedings from the conference held 23-28 April 2017 in Vienna, Austria., 13835
Havenith HB, Umaraliev R, Schlögel R, Torgoev I., In book: Kyrgyzstan: Political, Economic and Social Issues, Edition: Central Asia: Economic and Political Issues, Chapter: Past and Potential Future Socioeconomic Impacts of Environmental Hazards in Kyrgyzstan, Publisher: NOVA Science Publishers, NY, USA, Editor: Oliver A. Perry, October 2017, 63 – 113.
Abdrakhmatov, K., H.-B. Havenith, D. Delvaux, D. Jongmans & P. Trefois. Probabilistic PGA and Arias Intensity maps of Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia), Journal of Seismology 7, 2003, 203–220.
Matthew Free, Katherine Coates, Damian N. Grant, Yannis Fourniadis, Thomas Ader, Luis Sousa, Kevin Fleming, Massimiliano Pittore, Bolot Moldobekov, Cholponbek Ormukov. Seismic Risk in the Kyrgyz Republic, Central Asia, Conference: Conference: 16th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 18 - 21 June 2018, At Thessaloniki, Greece.
Haberland, C., Abdybachaev, U., Schurr, B., Wetzel, H.-U., Roessner, S., Sarnagoev, A., Orunbaev, S., Janssen, C.: Landslides in Southern Kyrgyzstan: Understanding Tectonic Controls. - EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 2011, 92, 20, 69-176.
Bindi et al., Bindi, D., Abdrakhmatov, K., Parolai, S., Mucciarelli, M., Grünthal, G., Ischuk, A., Mikhailova, N., Zschau, J.: Seismic hazard assessment in Central Asia: Outcomes from a site approach. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 2012, 37, 84-91.
Saponaro, A., Pilz, M., Wieland, M., Bindi, D., Moldobekov, B., Parolai, S.: Landslide susceptibility analysis in data-scarce regions: the case of Kyrgyzstan. - Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 2015, 74, 4, 1117-1136.
Havenith, H.-B., Strom, A., Torgoev, I., Torgoev, A., Lamair, L., Ischuk, A., and Abdrakhmatov, K. Tien Shan geohazards database: Earthquakes and landslides. Geomorphology 2015, 249: 16-31
Darya Golovko, Sigrid Roessner, Robert Behling, Hans-Ulrich Wetzel, Birgit Kleinschmit Evaluation of Remote-Sensing-Based Landslide Inventories for Hazard Assessment in Southern Kyrgyzstan, Remote Sensing 2017, 9(9), 943; doi:10.3390/rs9090943; 9,21,25.
UNICEF “Assessment of safety in school and pre-school education institutions in the Kyrgyz Republic” Summary report. B.: 2013.- 36 p.
United Nation, World Economic Situation Prospects, 2016, 210.
World Bank, Migration and Remittance Flows in Europe and Central Asia: Recent Trends and Outlook, 2013-2016, www.worldbank.org
World Bank, Overview of Kyrgyz Republic, 2016
United Nation University, UNU-EHS, World Risk Report, 2017, 56.
Birkmann J., Welle T., Krause D., Wolfertz D. C., Setiadi N., WorldRiskIndex: Concept and results. In: Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, WorldRiskReport 2011. Berlin: Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft (Alliance Development Works), 13-41.
United Nation University, UNU-EHS, World Risk Report, 2016, 69.
Perrow Charles, The Next Catastrophe, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.
World Bank, ISDR, CAREC, Central Asia and Caucasus DRM Initiative, 2009, 155.
MES KR & MF KR. Ministry of Emergency Situation KR and Ministry of Finance KR, Intermediate term forecast of the budget of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2012-2014, 2011, 157.
Toro J., Why do we need to talk more about risk reduction in Central Asia, World Bank, 2015, http://blogs.worldbank.org/europeandcentralasia/why-do-we-need-talk-more-about-risk-reduction-central-asia
World Bank, GFDRR, Country Risk Profiles for floods and earthquakes. 2016, 135
Havenith, H.-B., Bourdeau C., «Earthquake-induced landslide hazards in mountain regions: a review of case histories from Central Asia (An inaugural lecture to the society)», Geologica Belgica [En ligne], volume 13 (2010), number 3, 137-152 URL : https://popups.uliege.be:443/1374-8505/index.php?id=2884.
UNOCHA, 2008. Kyrgyzstan: Osh Earthquake OCHA Situation Report No. 3,https://reliefweb.int/report/kyrgyzstan/kyrgyzstan-osh-earthquake-ocha-situation-report-no-3
Paterson, E., D. D. Re, and Z. Wang: The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: Risk Management Lessons and Implications. RMS Publications. S. Ericksen, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), 2008.
Roessner, S., Behling, R., Wetzel, H.-U., Kleinschmit, B.: Evaluation of Remote-Sensing-Based Landslide Inventories for Hazard Assessment in Southern Kyrgyzstan. - Remote Sensing, 2017, 9.
Abdrakhmatov K.E., Djanuzakov K.D., Frolova A.G., Pogrebnoi V.N., Seismic zonation map of Kyrgyzstan. 1:1000000, 2011, IS NAC KR.
Abdrakhmatov, K., H.-B. Havenith, D. Delvaux, D. Jongmans & P. Trefois 2003. Probabilistic PGA and Arias Intensity maps of Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia), Journal of Seismology 7, 203–220
C. Impacts of Natural Disasters on Children. The Future of Children. Volume 26, Number 1, Spring 2016, pp. 73-92 | 10.1353/foc.2016.0004
Blaikie Piers, Terry Cannon, Ian Davis, and Ben Wisner, At Risk: Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters (London and New York: Routledge, 1994).
Alexander, D., Confronting Catastrophe. Terra, Hertfordshire. 2000.
Dilley M., Chen R.S., Deichmann U., Lerner-Lam A.L., Arnold M., Natural Disaster Hotspots. A Global Risk Analysis. Publisher: World Bank, 2005.
Van Westen CJ, Multi-hazard risk assessment, UNU-ITC DGIM. 2009, Retrieved from http://www.itc.nl/
EC, Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, Brussels, 2010, 43.
UN, UNISDR, DRR in the UN, 2009, 137.
WB, ISDR, CAREC. Mitigating the Adverse Financial Effects of Natural Hazards on the Economies of Central Asia, 2009, 40.
Gigerenzer Gerd, How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases". European Review of Social Psychology 2: 1991, 83-115.
Oshry Barry, Seeing Systems: Unlocking the Mysteries of Organizational Life, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2007, 228.
Sunny Y. Auyang, Foundations of Complex-system Theories: in Economics, Evolutionary Biology, and Statistical Physics, Cambridge University Press, 1999, 404.
GEF, UNEP. PALM Sustainable land management in high mountains of Pamir and Pamir-Alai – Integrated and trans-boundary Central Asian initiative (PALM)” Atlas, Dushanbe-Bishkek, 77, 2010.
Moura R., Umaraliev R., Almeida F., G dal Moro. Vs measurements through dispersive wave methods in the urban environment of Porto (North Portugal), 15th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, 15WCEF, 24-28.09.2012, Lisbon, Portugal.
Moura R., Umaraliev R., G dal Moro, Noronha F. Preliminary results of dispersive wave Vs measurements in the granitic urban environment of Porto, Portugal, SGEM2012 Conference Proceedings / 17-23.06.2012, Albena, Bulgaria, 2, 625–634.
Moura R., Umaraliev R., Almeida F., Abdrakhmatov K., Nizamiev A., Application of Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) for seismic hazard assessment: A Case study in the Chong-Alay district, Kyrgyz Republic, SGEM2013 Conference Proceedings, Albena, Bulgaria, 2013, 707-718.
EC 8, “Eurocode 8: design of structures for earthquake resistance Part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings”, European Norm. European Committee for Standardization, European Committee for Standardisation Central Secretariat, rue de Stassart 36, B-1050 Brussels, 2004.
NEHRP, National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, USA, Recommended seismic provisions for new buildings and other structures (FEMA P750). A council of the National Institute of Building Sciences Washington, D.C, 2009.
Izadkhah, Y.O.; Hosseini, M. Towards resilient communities in developing countries. Int. J. Emerg. Manag. 2005, 2, 138-148.
UNISDR. Disaster Risk Reduction begins at schools. In World Disaster Reduction Campaign; Geneva, Switzerland, 2007
Mitchell, T.; Haynes, K.; Hall, N .; Choong, W .; Oven, K. The roles of children and youth in communicating disaster risk. Child. Youth Environ. 2008, 18, 254-279. 9.
Reyer, CPO, Otto, IM, Adams, S. Albrecht, T., Baarsch, F., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, D., Eden, A., Ludi, E., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Mosello, B., Robinson, A., Schleussner, CF., Serdeczny, O. and Stagl, J. Climate Change Impacts in Central Asia and Their Implications for Development. Regional Environmental Change 17 (6), 2017, 1639-50.
Save the Children UK. Legacy of Disasters: The Impact of Climate Change on Children; Save the Children: London, UK, 2007.
Tarazona, M.; Gallegos, J. Recent Trends in Disaster Impacts on Child, Welfare and Development 1999–2009; The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: London, UK, 2011.
United Nation, UNISDR, How To Make Cities More Resilient A Handbook For LG Leaders, 2012, 100.
Olson R. (n.d.), Revisiting the Foundational “Disaster” Risk Equation [Florida International University Website]. Retrieved January 20, 2017, from http://eei.fiu.edu/equation/the-equation/
Lavell, A., M. Oppenheimer, C. Diop, J. Hess, R. Lempert, J. Li, R. Muir-Wood, and S. Myeong, Climate change: new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2012, 25-64.
Law of KR - On compulsory insurance of residential premises against fire and natural disasters (Law # 209, July 31, 2015)
STC IMC CP KR, Minutes of the 14th meeting of the Scientific and Technical Council under the Inter-Ministerial Commission for Civil Protection of the Kyrgyz Republic from 12.07.2013, MES KR, 2.
Birkmann J., Measuring vulnerability Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards Towards Disaster Resilient Societies, UNU-EHS, 2006, 279.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The names and email addresses entered in this journal site will be used exclusively for the stated purposes of this journal and will not be made available for any other purpose or to any other party.
Submission of the manuscript represents that the manuscript has not been published previously and is not considered for publication elsewhere.