Comparative Performance of the ARIMA, ARIMAX and SES Model for Estimating Reported Cases of Diabetes Mellitus in Anambra State, Nigeria


  •   C. V. Obi

  •   C. N. Okoli


This study examined the performance of the ARIMA, ARIMAX and the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) model for the estimation of diabetes cases in Anambra State with the following specific objectives: to fit the model to the data, to determine the best fit model for estimating diabetes mellitus cases and forecast for expected cases for period of five years. The secondary data used for the study is sourced from records of Anambra state Ministry of Health. The Akaike information criterion is adopted for assessing the performance of the models. The R-software is employed for the analysis of data. The results obtained showed that the data satisfied normality and stationarity requirements. The finding of the study showed that ARIMA model has least value of AIC of 1177.92, following the ARIMAX model with value of AIC=1542.25 and SEM recorded highest value of 1595.67. The findings further revealed that the ARIMA has the least values across the measures of accuracy. More so, five years predictions of the cases of diabetes mellitus were obtained using the models under study. From the results of the findings, ARIMA model proved to be best alternative for estimating reported cases of diabetes mellitus in Anambra state. Based on the findings, we recommend there is need for medical practitioners /health planners to create awareness and inform patients about the possible related risk factors of death through early diagnosis and intervention.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, Arima, Arimax, Exponential smoothing, Akaike Information Criterion


United Nations, “Political declaration of the High‑level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of Non‑communicable Diseases” New York: United Nations; 2011. p. 12‑13.

O. Oguejiofor, C. Odenigbo, and C. Onwukwe, “Diabetes in Nigeria: Impact, Challenges, Future Directions. Endocrinol Metab Synd, 2014, 3: 130. DOI:10.4172/2161-1017.1000130.

R. N. Oputa and S. Chinenye, “Diabetes in Nigeria – a translational medicine approach” African Journal of Diabetes Medicine, 2015, 23(1): 1-10.

T. Dahiru, A. A. Aliyu, and A. U. Shehu, “A review of population-based studies on diabetes mellitus in Nigeria” Sub-Saharan Afr J Med, 2016, 3:59-64.

A. A. Sabir, S. Balarabe, A. A. Sani, S. A. Isezuo, K. S. Bello, A. O. Jimoh and S. O. Iwuala, “Prevalence of diabetes mellitus and its risk factors among the suburban population of Northwest Nigeria” Sahel Med J, 2017, 20:168-172.

D. Adeloye, J. O. Ige, A. V. Aderemi, N. Adeleye, E. O. Amoo, A. Auta, and G. Oni, “Estimating the prevalence, hospitalisation and mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis” BMJ Open, 2017, 7:e015424. DOI:10.1136/ bmjopen-2016-015424.

S. B. Aynalem and A. J. Zeleke” Prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus and Its Risk Factors among Individuals Aged 15 Years and Above in Mizan-Aman Town, Southwest Ethiopia, 2016: A Cross Sectional Study” International Journal of Endocrinology, Article ID 9317987: 2018, 1-7.

A. E. Uloko, B. M. Musa, M. A. Ramalan, I. D. Gezawa, H. Fabian, F. H. Puepet, A. T. Uloko, M. M. Borodo, and K. B. Sada, “Prevalence and Risk Factors for Diabetes Mellitus in Nigeria: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis” Diabetes Ther, 2018, 9:1307–1316

B. M. Onyenekwe, E. E. Young, C. B. Nwatu, C. I. Okafor, C. V. Ugwueze, and K. O. Onuekwusi, “Diabetes Mellitus in adult Nigerians: patients’ characteristics, laboratory profile, practices and management outcome” International Journal of Research in Medical Sciences, 2019, 7(10): 3844-3853. DOI:

K. Singh, S. Shastri, A. S. Bhadwal, P. Kour, M. Kumari, A. Sharma, and V. Mansotra” Implementation of Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting Time Series Data. International Journal of Scientific Research in Computer Science Applications and Management Studies, 2019, 1(1): 1-5.

K. P. Burnham and D. R. Anderson “Model Selection and Multi model Inference: A Practical Information- Theoretical Approach. 2nd ed” New York: Springer, 2002.


Download data is not yet available.


How to Cite
Obi, C.V. and Okoli, C.N. 2021. Comparative Performance of the ARIMA, ARIMAX and SES Model for Estimating Reported Cases of Diabetes Mellitus in Anambra State, Nigeria. European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research. 6, 1 (Jan. 2021), 63-68. DOI: